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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-08-23T02:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-08-23T02:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32987/-1
CME Note: Faint partial halo CME visible to the west/southwest in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source of the CME may be a filament and possible flare starting around 2024-08-23T01:00Z from AR13794 (N20W30) based on SDO/AIA 131 and 304. Dimming is also visible to the SW of the eruption location - best seen in SDO/AIA 211. | Arrival Signature: Interplanetary shock detected by ACE at L1 at 2024-08-27T07:33Z, characterized by sudden increase in B-total from 3nT to 8nT, shortly thereafter rising to 11.8nT. Simultaneous increase in solar wind speed from 250 km/s to 325 km/s, increase in temperature from 15,000 Kelvin to 87,000 Kelvin, and increase in density from 2 p/cc to 16 p/cc.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-08-27T07:33Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-08-27T06:00Z (-10.0h, +10.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-08-23T08:58Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 416
Longitude (deg): W029
Latitude (deg): N02
Half-angular width (deg): 25

Notes: Glancing impact most likely. 
Space weather advisor: Kirk Waite

Lead Time: 56.72 hour(s)
Difference: 1.55 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2024-08-24T22:50Z

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